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HIRI’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit, held Sept. 29-30 in Minneapolis, examined economic pressures, customer behavior, AI and market forecasts. HIRI forecast the home improvement products market would grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, but shrink 1.5% after inflation; speakers also reported that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit brought industry leaders to Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to examine economic pressures, consumer behavior, artificial intelligence and the outlook for home improvement. HIRI forecast that the market for home improvement products would grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, while shrinking 1.5% after inflation, underscoring the difference between nominal sales growth and consumers’ purchasing power.
The summit organized its sessions around five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, home improvement project spending, and sales channels. Speakers discussed how inflation, affordability, income and mortgage rates are shaping homebuilding and homebuying. Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the National Association of Home Builders, said the median age of a first-time homebuyer is now 40, compared with 29 in 1981.
HIRI’s Dave King joined Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at OpenBrand, and Michael Zdinak, director at S&P Global, in a session on the factors affecting buyers. Other sessions examined recommendations and preferences along the customer journey, including the role of home improvement professionals and AI. Liza Hausman, senior vice president of marketing at Houzz, presented research saying 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI to help. The source report does not specify the study’s methodology or how “use AI” was defined.
Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented results from the Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The report put contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, discussed how the brand seeks to maintain trust by educating audiences and avoiding a transactional approach.
Inflation Changes the Market Picture
The forecast gives retailers and manufacturers a mixed signal: sales measured in current dollars are expected to rise, but the inflation-adjusted estimate points to a contraction. Those figures are not interchangeable. The 2.5% nominal growth reflects current-dollar market value, while the 1.5% decline after inflation adjusts for price changes and indicates weaker real growth.
The summit’s discussion also connects housing affordability with the pool of potential customers. A first-time buyer median age of 40, as presented by the NAHB speaker, is one indicator of changes in the homebuying landscape. Buyers’ capacity and timing can affect demand for renovation and home improvement products, although the summit recap does not quantify that relationship. For businesses planning the coming quarter, King’s message was to reduce uncertainty in customers’ decisions as economic conditions and household budgets shape projects.
AI use is another signal for companies tracking how homeowners research renovations and choose products or services. The Houzz figures suggest AI is already part of some households’ renovation process, but they do not establish that AI caused spending or changed project outcomes. The findings are best read as reported adoption and spending exposure, not proof of a particular commercial effect.
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Five Themes Framed the Summit
HIRI describes the event as a forum for home improvement leaders and professionals to draw insight from industry data. Its agenda linked the broad economic outlook with practical questions about how customers plan projects, gather information and buy products. Sessions also covered research, spending and the role of different sales channels.
The market forecast cited at the summit came from HIRI’s Q3 2026 Size of the Home Improvement Products Market Report and Forecast. It provided the basis for King’s outlook heading into 2027. The contractor confidence score came from separate tracker and index work presented by Farnsworth, while the renovation AI figures were attributed to Houzz’s 2026 research. These measures address different parts of the market and should not be treated as a single survey or combined metric.
Alongside economic and research presentations, O’Connor’s session focused on brand trust. He described an approach centered on educating audiences, being accurate and not appearing transactional. That perspective complemented the sessions on customer recommendations and preferences by focusing on how companies communicate with homeowners, not only on forecasts or product demand.
““Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.””
— Dave King, HIRI
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Research Details Still Missing
The summit recap reports the headline figures but does not provide the full underlying tables, survey samples, definitions or margins of error for the AI, contractor-confidence and market-forecast measures. The 22% AI-use figure and the share of renovation dollars associated with those households are presented as Houzz research findings; the available report does not explain how the figures were calculated or whether AI use preceded renovation spending.
The recap also does not give a breakdown of the expected market performance by product category, channel or region, or specify the assumptions behind the inflation-adjusted forecast. It remains unclear how the reported contractor confidence will translate into completed work and sales. The summit material describes trends and forecasts, not confirmed outcomes for the remainder of 2026 or 2027.
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Businesses Watch the Coming Quarter
Manufacturers, retailers and contractors will be watching whether customer demand and project spending track the forecast as 2026 progresses. HIRI’s cited report points to 2.5% current-dollar growth and a 1.5% inflation-adjusted decline for the year, but the summit recap does not identify a later update date or give a schedule for revised projections.
For now, King’s recommendation to manufacturers is to make customer decisions less uncertain in the coming quarter. Further evidence on AI adoption, contractor activity and market performance will be needed to show whether the figures presented at the summit lead to changes in purchasing, project activity or business results.
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Key Questions
What was the main news from HIRI’s 2026 summit?
The summit brought home improvement industry leaders together in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, 2026, to discuss economic conditions, AI, customer behavior and market forecasts. HIRI’s cited forecast projected growth in current-dollar market value but a decline after inflation.
What did HIRI forecast for the home improvement products market?
HIRI’s Q3 2026 market report and forecast projected 2.5% growth in current dollars in 2026 and a 1.5% decline after inflation. The two figures use different measures and should not be read as the same growth rate.
How many homeowners use AI for renovation, according to the summit?
Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman reported that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation. She also said 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI to help. The summit recap does not include the study’s methodology or definition of AI use.
What did the contractor confidence index show?
Grant Farnsworth presented findings from the Q2 2026 contractor sentiment tracker alongside the Q3 Farnsworth Contractor Index. The reported confidence in getting business over the next six months was 8.2 out of 10.
What remains uncertain after the summit?
The recap does not provide detailed methodology, sample sizes or category-level forecasts for the figures discussed. It also remains unclear how reported AI use and contractor confidence will translate into actual project spending and sales.
Source: rss
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